... Dry and slightly warmer today. Clipper system brings snow Friday through Friday night, then arctic high pressure Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Thursday...
Temperatures across the northern zones bottomed out a few degrees below their projected low at the time of the package issuance, so adjusted accordingly to remain in line with local observations. Otherwise, forecast is still on track for today.
As of 225 AM Thursday...
Frigid temperatures are underway early this morning as surface high pressure slides to the east and efficient radiational cooling transpires in response to clear skies. Many areas across southeast Ohio are reporting temperatures in the single digits to almost subzero readings. Winds will remain below advisory criteria to suggest wind chills in this portion of the forecast area, but does remain feasible along the spine of the Appalachians where the current advisory is in place until 8 AM this morning.
Temperatures quickly recover after sunrise as southwesterly flow ramps up in the wake of transient high pressure moving offshore. High temperatures this afternoon may reach the low 40s in spots around the Charleston metro and down into the southern coalfields, while remaining below the climatological norm across our northern and mountain zones.
The potential for snow begins to increase late tonight along a shortwave trough plunging down from the north. Clouds will increase as the afternoon progresses and moisture is ushered in along the aforementioned southerly llvl flow. Snow showers hold off until this evening and will mainly impact the northern flank of the forecast area initially before stretching further south and along the higher terrain. Lackluster moisture content with this shortwave/weak frontal boundary will squeeze out a few tenths of an inch overnight of snow, with the better potential for decent accumulations progged to arrive for the end of the work week.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...
This period kicks off right in the middle of a snow event with the main features being an upper level trough and a cold front right over the area. The downstream side of the trough will be placed overhead starting around Friday 12Z promoting upper level divergence, lifting and cooling to advect snow across the area.
Modest accumulations are expected throughout the day. Higher snowfall rates will also be expected while frontogenesis associated with the surface feature reinforces rates through the afternoon while it continues to slide southeast.
The Cold front will kick out by late afternoon along the mountains, however the snow will continue due to a system off the Atlantic coast driving north and aiding in providing wrap around flow that will ride along the frontal boundary supporting more snowfall across our area.
By the evening, most snowfall will reside along mid West Virginia and along the mountains. By late night Friday into Saturday morning, snow will be confined to the mountains before slowly pulling away as the system off the coast does the same, leaving the rest of Saturday settled and frigid.
The event snow totals will be around 2-3 inches across most of West Virginia with lesser amounts of 1 inch or less near our Ohio and Kentucky counties. Greater amounts of 3-5 inches are possible near and in the northeast mountains.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...
On Sunday, long range models hint on a weak clipper affecting the northern periphery of our CWA. This will raise some chances for snow during the daytime, however the EURO did not agree with this solution. Therefore, accepted central guidance that just had slight chances of grazing our northern CWA border.
For Monday and Tuesday, more settled weather should take place while temperatures reach seasonable and above by Tuesday ending a long cold spell.
A significant southern stream system will begin to affect the area on Wednesday morning with a wintry mix then transitioning to all rain during the daytime as a warming trend continues.