... Less active end to the week, though afternoon showers/storms remain possible along the mountains. Next system arrives late weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1020 AM Thursday...
Opted to make a few slight adjustments to hourly temperatures in colder spots this morning that were still under the influence of patchy fog. Satellite imagery at the time of writing depicts the last of the fog eroding, which should then allow for diurnal heating to take shape across all parts of the forecast area.
As of 410 AM Thursday...
A ridge of high pressure is moving across from the west, clearing skies overnight. Patchy dense fog is developing areawide along river valleys as steep low level inversions set up under a stable air mass. With dry air aloft, fog should improve several hours after sunrise leading to a sunny afternoon. A few cumulus develop along the mountains in the afternoon as weak low pressure east lifts north. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms as the broad trough aloft exits northeast this afternoon and evening.
Quiet weather is expected Thursday night with a surface ridge moving toward the coast. Patchy valley fog redevelops after midnight with seasonably cool temperatures.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 500 AM Thursday...
An upper level low centered over MN/ND begins tracking southeast towards the area during the short term period. Meanwhile, a disturbance lifts out of the Gulf states ahead of this low and then passes southeast of the area late Friday into early Saturday. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop by Friday afternoon as moisture rises due to the approaching disturbance, though activity should generally remain within in southern and eastern portions of the CWA. Chances of showers and thunderstorms then persist as the aforementioned low continues shifting towards the area this weekend.
Near normal temperatures are expected each day, with highs in the 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to around 80 along the mountains. Overnight lows should be in the mid to upper 60s in the lowlands, with mid 50s to low 60s in the higher elevations.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 500 AM Thursday...
During the long term period, models begin to diverge in their handling of a system that will be progressing into the area over the weekend. The GFS and ECMWF models lift the low and upper shortwave trough to the northeast early in the work week, with most precipitation occurring Sunday and Monday, followed by slightly less active weather into mid week. The Canadian also begins to shift the low northeast as the shortwave trough crosses early in the work week, but then sweeps another trough past the area which would maintain chances for showers and storms through mid week. For now, have maintained a blended solution that keeps at least a chance of precipitation through the end of the long term period.
Will be closely monitoring the development of the low pressure system as access to plenty of moisture raises concerns over the potential for heavy rainfall to cause flash flooding this weekend into next week.