... Late summer-like conditions with heat building through the week. Most stay dry through most of the week, but isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1220 PM Wednesday...
A weak convergence line exists from in the vicinity of Elkins to north of Charleston this afternoon. Mesoscale models indicate some weak instability here with slightly higher surface dew points through this afternoon and have added a mention of isolated showers and thunderstorms in this area this afternoon into early this evening. Should see significantly less convective coverage than yesterday afternoon. For the remainder of the area, just some puffy cumulus this afternoon with clearing skies overnight tonight. Two days displaced from our recent rainfall and with light easterly flow continuing tonight, would not expect much valley fog to be able to form, if any does it will likely remain confined to the mountain valleys.
Similar conditions are expected Thursday: Hot with lowland highs in the mid to upper 80s and an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly near the mountains. Continuing easterly flow will carry anything that can manage to form a little bit out into the foothills.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 142 PM Wednesday...
An upper level ridge is expected to slowly retrograde to our west during the period. This ridge is expected to keep the region dry.
The high Friday will be quite warm with readings in the upper 80s and low 90s across the lowlands with 70s and 80s across the higher elevations. Overnight lows will be quite pleasant with 50s Thursday night and in the 50s and low 60s Friday night.
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LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1213 PM Wednesday...
An upper low is expected to drift south across the east during this period. However, the models continue to have differences in the track and location of the low. The GFS has the upper low over PA Sunday morning with the ECMWF showing the upper low off the east coast.
Per the ECMWF, the low is expected to push northeast away from the coast Sunday while the GFS has the low meandering around the area before pushing off the east coast by Wednesday morning.
A cold front is also forecast to push south across the region on Saturday.
Because of these uncertainties, have gone with a model blend that indicates a chance of mainly afternoon and evening convection beginning Saturday with the greatest threat of storms being across our eastern and northeastern counties.
Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lowlands, Behind the front, cooler air will filter in with highs in the 70s and lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to warm a few degrees for Wednesday.
Across the higher terrain, highs on Saturday in the 70s and 80s will give way to 60s and 70s on the beginning of the new workweek.