... A cold front slips south late tonight with weak high pressure to follow for Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday...
Surface front as of 18Z was draped across southeast Ohio, close to the Ohio River. Ahead of the front, a cluster of convection is exiting the central WV mountains with additional activity developing into southeast WV and southwest VA. In its wake, agitated cumulus is developing as afternoon heating becomes maximized. Synoptic forcing remains weak near the front with any redevelopment focused south of the I64 corridor near lingering outflow boundaries and mainly isolated in nature. Risk of severe weather remains low with SPC holding onto a marginal threat across the southern counties. With PWATs remaining near 2 inches, any storm will be capable of downpours and amounts nearing an inch in a very short period of time.
Cold front will slowly make inroads into the area tonight, making more of push overnight as a weak s/w trof gives the boundary a nudge. Low POPs were maintained through the overnight hours along and ahead of the front. Some of the hi res models try to bring some light showers late tonight on the other side of the boundary with the aforementioned mid level feature. Will leave southeast OH and northern WV void of POPs for now given the uncertainty. Regardless, expect some mid deck areawide with low stratus developing across portions of the Coal Fields, extending north up the US119/I79 corridor. Dependent on extent of cloud cover, some patchy dense river valley fog is also possible.
Weak high pressure builds into the region Sunday with the surface front slipping south of the area as the day progresses. Drier air with lower dewpoints will advect in from northwest to southeast in the afternoon. Any low stratus will scatter, leaving some mid deck to result in a partly cloudy afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal, however.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Saturday...
Sunday night into Monday morning may actually be fairly pleasant across the area, as high pressure on the north side of the front will direct modestly drier air into the area on north to northeast winds. Lows Monday morning are currently forecast in the low to mid 60s in lower elevations, with upper 50s in the mountains. However, as the high slides to the east, winds shift southerly and low-level moisture starts building back into the area for the afternoon of Independence Day. Thus a somewhat comfortable start to the morning is forecast to turn into a rather muggy afternoon across the area as dew points may creep back towards 70 in the afternoon.
That said, while we may see some increase in clouds Monday afternoon and evening, precip should largely stay clear of the CWA through fireworks time Monday night. The possible exception may be a few showers or storms over far southern WV and our SW VA counties. A few showers and storms may work into our far northern counties by sunrise on Tuesday, but the better chance looks to hold off until the long- term period. It will be muggy Monday night, with lows around 70 degrees at lower elevations.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Saturday...
A 'ring of fire' will set up on the northern side of the upper ridge sitting over the Southeast US in the middle and latter parts of this week. Our CWA appears to be right under the forecast path for multiple shortwave disturbances moving in the WNW-NW'ly upper-level flow during this period. Precip chances will depend highly on the timing and track of the disturbances, which remains a bit uncertain this far out. Thus every day has chance to low-end likely POPs across most or all of the CWA for now, and this will be able to be refined up or down as we get closer.
The WPC does have the area in their 15% risk area on Day 4 (12z Tue - 12z Wed), which would roughly equate to a 'slight' risk category. This does appear to be a day with a good chance of a more organized area of precip, possibly a sizable MCS, coming into our area from the northwest, so we'll have to keep a close eye on this in the next few days. Regardless, water issues will definitely be something to watch for in the coming week, owing to the daily chance for areas of heavy rain. Otherwise, it looks like temps overall will remain around or a bit warmer than normal through at least mid-week, but we may have a downward trend into the weekend.