Winterplace Ski Resort

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Ghent, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Hot weather through Saturday. A cold front crosses late Sunday, with a cooler start to the new work week. Unsettled weather is then expected through much of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 814 AM Friday...

Updated forecast to increase precipitation for areas along I-64 and north as a mesoscale convective system tracks across the Ohio River Valley. Only small chances for rain toward I-64 with the best chance for accumulations and a few thunderstorms along northern counties. Rain chances are expected to taper off by mid afternoon as the storm system lifts north.

As of 614 AM Friday...

Forecast remains on track.

As of 249 AM Friday...

Remnants of the last MCV exit early this morning taking the rain showers with it. An upper level ridge builds across the area today, providing dry weather conditions through at least tonight. A LLJ develops during the predawn hours to produce strong winds aloft. These winds will mix down to produce gusty winds up to 25 knots during the afternoon hours, subsiding this evening. Afternoon mixing could drop Relative Humidity into the lower 30s during the afternoon hours. Plenty of sunshine and strong southwest winds aloft will bring hot temperatures ranging from the mid 90s lowlands, into the mid 80s higher elevations. In fact, it will be a degree or two shy of record breaking criteria at PKB (91 in 1934) and CKB (93 in 1959).

Climate Sites Records: KCRW (96 in 1934), KHTS (95 in 1934), KBKW (89 in 1996), KEKN (90 in 1911), KPKB (91 in 1934) and KCKB (93 in 1959).

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 430 AM Friday...

The short term period begins with a ridge of high pressure over the eastern US. Saturday is expected to be very warm, with showers and storms developing mainly in the afternoon and evening. Shortwave energy moving through the top of the ridge may assist with development of storms.

Chances for showers and storms then continue for the remainder of the weekend as a cold front approaches and then crosses through Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Due to the potential for heavy rainfall within any stronger storms, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been issued for the entire area.

Cooler air moves in behind the front, resulting in high temperatures remaining slightly below normal on Monday. Lingering moisture may also allow for showers to persist into Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 430 AM Friday...

Unsettled weather is expected through the long term period, first with shortwaves passing by the area, and then as a low pressure system and upper trough approach from the west. Model solutions for timing and placement of precipitation remain varied, so have maintained the possibility of showers throughout the period.

As far as temperatures go, highs are projected to warm above normal into mid week, then lower back to normal towards the end of the work week.

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