|Dew Point:||61.4°F (16.3°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.95" (912.5 mb)|
Partly CloudyLow: 58
Mostly SunnyHigh: 77 Low: 59
SunnyHigh: 81 Low: 61
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 77 Low: 56
Mostly SunnyHigh: 72 Low: 52
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southwest wind around 3 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 3 to 7 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West wind around 3 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 81. Southwest wind 2 to 8 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
A chance of rain showers after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of rain showers before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
... Unseasonably warm and mainly dry weather persists through the weekend. Weak cold front crosses Monday into Monday night. High pressure Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1220 PM Friday...
Made a few changes to the previous forecast. Based on radar this early afternoon, did elect to add slight chance of showers to the tri-state area and parts of southeast Ohio, but for the most part, the CWA should remain dry for the remainder of the day, with partly sunny sky.
Tonight, could see a little more in the way of fog development as compared to recent nights with light rain shower activity earlier in the day, but, not the most promising considering overall dry conditions. Office measured 0.02 inches from shower activity this morning. Much of this may be mitigated from cloud cover overnight/towards dawn from passing shortwave.
Did elect to add the potential for showers late tonight and for at least the first part of Saturday, as a shortwave moves across the area. Best chances for precipitation look to be across northern zones, although feel it can't be completely ruled out anywhere. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light and provide little to no relief with the overall dry conditions.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 229 PM Friday...
The flow aloft will become more southwesterly on Sunday ahead of an upper trough in the central Plains and continued influence of the persistent H5 ridge in the southeast CONUS. This should allow high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer on Sunday compared to Saturday as some locations approach 90F in the afternoon. Thus, a very warm but increasingly breezy day is expected on Sunday as a pressure gradient strengthens with surface high pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast and low pressure in northern Ontario. In addition, with the better moisture remaining west of the area on Sunday, will need to watch the potential for dry air mixing in the afternoon and quickly decreasing RH values. These factors could combine to make the fire danger slightly elevated on Sunday, but at this point, it isn't looking like Red Flag criteria will be met.
By Sunday night, cloud cover will increase from west to east across the region ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front that will be moving into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Showers will then begin to approach areas west of the OH river early Monday morning as the front approaches and precipitation activity will continue to move further to the east on Monday afternoon. Given the cloud cover expected, models are suggesting that instability will be rather limited. However, with enough lift from the frontal boundary and upper trough axis, areas of scattered showers and storms are expected area-wide during the day. The bulk of the shower activity will be east of the area by the end of the short term period, but a few showers may linger in the mountains Monday evening. Rainfall amounts at this point appear to be around 0.10-0.25 inches, with some locally higher amounts closer to 0.50 inches. While any rain is beneficial to the increasingly parched area, not expecting any widespread drought relief from this system.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 229 PM Friday...
Any shower activity associated with the aforementioned frontal boundary will push east of the area late Monday as high pressure quickly builds in from the west. This feature will set the stage for a dry and sunny day on Tuesday with highs finally getting closer to normal values for this time of the year. However, temperatures will quickly warm back to above normal by Wednesday as high pressure quickly pushes east and return flow brings in warmer air once again. Thus, temperatures are expected to gradually increase from mid to late week as an upper level ridge becomes established across the eastern US once again. Chances of showers also may increase late week as moisture continues to increase, but a consenus model blend has kept PoPs out of the area for now.