|Dew Point:||66.3°F (19.1°C)|
|Wind:||From the WSW at 3.2 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.77" (906.4 mb)|
Mostly Sunny then Scattered Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 78 Low: 63
Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms then Scattered Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 74 Low: 47
SunnyHigh: 70 Low: 54
Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 78 Low: 62
Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly SunnyHigh: 81 Low: 62
Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Southwest wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers before 8am, then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 9am, then scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. West wind 12 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Northwest wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 70. Northwest wind around 7 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
... Hot and humid this weekend with an isolated shower/storm possible. Cold front Monday with cool conditions through Tuesday. Heat then returns by mid and late week along with renewed thunderstorm chances.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 650 AM Sunday...
Some weak echoes showing up on Radar across northeastern areas of the FA, so made some adjustments to POPs based off this activity for the next few hours. In addition, tweaked hourly temperatures to better reflect latest observations and trends.
As of 345 AM Sunday...
Warm air advection will peak across the region today as an upper level ridge across the southeast CONUS shifts east and a mid level trough lifts from the Midwest towards the Great Lakes through the afternoon. At the surface, a low pressure system will lift from northeast IA this morning towards northern Lake Michigan by the evening. As the storm system lifts towards northern Michigan through the day, its associated cold front will be moving eastward across the Midwest this afternoon and Ohio Valley by the evening. This means our area will remain well ahead of the cold front today, placing the region well in the warm sector. Thus, another hot and humid afternoon is expected today as highs reach the mid/upper 80s area-wide. In addition, it will much breezier than what was experienced on Saturday with forecast soundings suggesting that a deep mixed layer will be present with steep low level lapse rates. Further enhancing any gusty winds will be the presence of a 40 kt low level jet, especially across western zones. Although the core of the LLJ will be west of the region, the well mixed atmosphere should still support widespread gusts in the 25+ kt range, but some gusts stronger than that will certainly be possible.
There also remains a few opportunities for convection today, with the possibility of even a few strong to severe storms. The main area of focus initially will be areas generally along and near the mountains. Models show that as the aforementioned mid level trough pushes towards the Great Lakes, an initial perturbation embedded in the southwest flow aloft will combine with diurnal heating to support the risk of scattered showers and storms. Again, the favored area this afternoon will be along/near the mountains, where a combination of the ingredients just discussed along with the orographic influence should support the best area of lift and low level convergence. In addition, the instability will be greatest in this region where better moisture profiles will be present; yielding MLCAPE values around 1,000-1,500 J/Kg. While some of this convective activity could impact the adjacent lowlands, instability appears to be less (MLCAPE less than 1,000 J/Kg), especially locations west of the Interstate-79 corridor. The one limiting factor overall appears to be the amount of shear that will be present in the mountains during the time of greatest instability. Models do show that more favorable shear will move into the region eventually as the LLJ rotates in from he west by the evening, but instability will also be waning by this time. However, with that said, SPC has placed the region along and east of Interstate-79 in a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon, while locations west towards Interstate-77 are placed in a Marginal risk. In southeast OH and northeast KY, just a general risk of thunder is forecast at this time, which will primarily occur with the secondary activity associated with the cold front. Greatest threat associated with this activity will be damaging wind gusts, but suppose hail could also be a concern depending how much instability gets realized.
The second round of activity will occur this evening along/ahead of the cold front. Latest Hi-res guidance suggests that the cold front will approach western areas of the CWA right around 00z/Monday. However, given the unfavorable timing of the frontal passage, most CAMs are showing that a weakening broken line of showers and some embedded thunderstorms is the most likely scenario for our region as the frontal boundary approaches this evening. Although better shear will arrive at this time with the LLJ, models are showing very little instability will be present by this time and so chances of anything severe from this activity appear to be pretty low at this point. However, the evolution of this activity will still be something to monitor through the day.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 244 AM Sunday...
Sfc cold front is still prog to gradually push east across the CWA during the day Monday. Despite FROPA, the day itself will still generally be on the warm side as true CAA shouldn't arrive until later in the day. Isolated to widely scattered light showers may occur after FROPA, but impacts should be pretty low to nil. Breezy conditions are also likely during the day with winds becoming rather gusty at times if some sunshine is able to develop.
Tuesday should be a pleasant weather day as a sfc high pressure axis extends into the region from the north. The day should start off on the cool side, especially if sfc winds become calm and skies clear out fast enough. Have gone on the lower end of guidance, to even a little below some guidance suites, for min temps Monday night. However, high soil moisture values are currently precluding me from going even lower than what is currently forecast. Max temps Tuesday should be close to normal values for this time of the year.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 251 AM Sunday...
WAA rapidly returns to the region on Wednesday with H85 temps warming roughly 10 decrees C between Tuesday morning and Wed morning. This will result in very warm to hot afternoon conditions once again with moisture values gradually increasing. H5 ridging becomes more established across the SE CONUS for the second half of the week allowing for even hotter and more humid conditions. Friday could potentially be the hottest day of the upcoming week as the ridge axis is prog by both the GFS and ECMWF to extend NEward into the area. Convective chances should also return to the CWA for the second half of the week as a few disturbances round the northern edge of the mid level ridge.