|Dew Point:||68.0°F (20.0°C)|
|Wind:||From the SW at 5.8 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.79" (907.1 mb)|
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 73 Low: 60
Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 70 Low: 57
Partly SunnyHigh: 71 Low: 58
Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 72 Low: 61
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 76 Low: 63
Rain showers likely before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Northwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A slight chance of rain showers between 7pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Partly sunny, with a high near 71. Southeast wind around 12 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
A slight chance of rain showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72.
A slight chance of rain showers before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of rain showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
... Cold front finally exits to the south today. High pressure with dry, cooler weather for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1110 AM Friday...
Cold front draped across WV from EKN/BKW/JKL line will continue to move Southeastward and exit the area by this afternoon. Any showers associated with it will also exit as well. Drier high pressure will start to build in over the area this afternoon and this evening. We should start to see some clearing from NW to SE during this same time period as well.
Fog should be very wide spread towards the early morning hours on Saturday, especially in areas where it had rained.
As of 235 AM Friday...
In the midst of strengthening lower level 900-800mb frontogenesis, so expect the coverage of showers to increase through sunrise this morning. A weak wave of surface low pressure is keeping the forward motion of the cold front to a minimum but should see the front clear our portion of the mountains after 15Z. The POPs continue in the wake of the front, however, due to a 500mb axis embedded in the very broad cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes. Much drier air at the surface, lower, and mid levels moves in with this wholesale airmass change once the wave aloft passes and high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Lower dewpoints tonight allow for lows to drop back into a more comfortable range after a few days of heat across the region.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 313 AM Friday...
Mainly dry conditions are expected on Saturday due to the influence of an expansive surface high centered in Quebec. However, can't completely rule out a few isolated showers/storms Saturday afternoon in extreme southeastern zones where better quality moisture and instability is expected (dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and CAPE around 1,000 J/kg). The greatest chance of any precipitation will be in southwest VA where low chance PoPs are in place. Elsewhere, the atmosphere will be very dry with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s, yielding PWATs between a half inch to an inch. With high temperatures forecast to reach the upper 70s/low 80s, fantastic weather is expected with comfortable humidity levels.
As the aforementioned high pressure shifts east towards the Canadian maritimes on Sunday, return flow will give temperatures a boost of a few degrees. This should translate to highs in the low 80s across the lowlands on Sunday afternoon, just a degree or two below normal for this time of the year. Upper ridge axis across the Great Lakes should provide for a mainly dry forecast once again, but some low PoPs are included across southern areas as a cut-off low rotates east of the area in the Mid-Atlantic region. Regardless, with little to no instability expected and subsidence in place, most of the region should be dry.
By Monday, upper ridge axis continues to push to the east and a shortwave trough will move across the Midwest. This leading shortwave trough will eventually become absorbed by a larger scale trough emerging from the northern Plains late in the short term period. However, the leading shortwave trough may get close enough to our region on Monday afternoon to bring an increase in PoPs from west to east through the day, as the GFS suggests. The ECMWF, however, is slower with the arrival of the leading trough and thus, holds off on most of the precip towards mainly the long term period. For now, went with a consenus blend of models which does support slight/chance PoPs across the region Monday afternoon into the evening.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 313 AM Friday...
By Monday night, the aforementioned main trough axis will extend from the Canadian Prairies southeastward into the Ohio Valley, pushing a cold front through our region on Tuesday. This will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the area on Tuesday. With models projecting PWATs around 1.50-1.75 inches, heavy downpours will be possible. There also will be some modest shear, with models at this distance suggesting around 30 kts in the 0-6 km layer. However, instability will be in question given the abundant cloud cover that is expected.
Precipitation will end from west to east throughout the day on Wednesday, with high pressure building in across the Ohio Valley. This feature should then be in control through the remainder of the week, keeping conditions mainly dry and seasonal through the end of the long term period.