|Dew Point:||35.3°F (1.8°C)|
|Wind:||From the ESE at 11.4 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||28°F (-2°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.83" (908.5 mb)|
RainHigh: 46 Low: 40
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 53 Low: 23
SunnyHigh: 38 Low: 25
SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 29
Partly Sunny then Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 43 Low: 29
Rain before 1pm, then rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 46. Southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Rain showers. Cloudy. Low around 40, with temperatures rising to around 48 overnight. South wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely before 3pm. Mostly cloudy. High near 53, with temperatures falling to around 39 in the afternoon. West wind 14 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Mostly clear, with a low around 23. West wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 38. West wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph.
Clear, with a low around 25.
Sunny, with a high near 41.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
A chance of rain showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
... A couple upper level impulses bring periods of rain today with the best chance along and south of I-64. A cold front blows through early Sunday, with strong, gusty winds behind it.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 640 AM Saturday...
Did one more blend with higher resolution guidance in an effort to tighten up the POP gradient today as the next wave is already moving into southern zones. Also updated temperatures based on current observations which removed most of the freezing rain mention across the far northern mountains.
As of 100 AM Saturday...
Tried to sharpen up POP gradients throughout the period -- keying in on three impulses for the highest values. The first has already crossed the southern forecast area and is pulling away to the east so have POPs limited to the southeastern CWA and on the decrease through around 09Z or so. The next impulse is currently moving across TN, and should bring renewed rain after sunrise. Again, keep the highest POPs along and south of I-64, but have some uncertainty on the northern edge with this impulse so leaked high chance POPs all the way across the forecast area to account for this. This wave crosses by early afternoon, so generally have POPs moving out to the east with a lull from 18Z-21Z.
Attention then turns to an occluding front and another upper level impulse which will lift across the forecast area overnight. Have a fairly large area of 90-100 percent POPs overnight with these features. Also include some rumbles of thunder across the west near the occluding front and on the nose of a low level jet. Flow off the surface does pick up, but is still mostly warm advection, so any taller showers or storms could pull down some of this, but not expecting anything to significant with limited instability best area of shear lagging behind.
Overall rainfall amounts for today and tonight range from 1.0-1.5" across the southern coal fields to 0.75-1.0" north of Route 50. With the rainfall being divided up between multiple impulses, creeks and streams will have some recovery time in the lulls. This is still enough rainfall across the south, falling on already soggy ground, to keep the flood watch going for possible high water issues in typical poor drainage areas.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 435 AM Saturday...
A cold front blows through first thing Sunday morning. A well mixed boundary layer in its wake, with the help of the late winter strengthening sun, will result in efficient mixing of 45-60 kts h85 winds to the surface, especially during the strongest low level cold advection, during the morning and early afternoon hours on Sunday. Have peak gusts just over 50 kts over the higher ridges of the northern WV mountains, and 40s elsewhere in the high wind watch area, in and near the northern WV mountains, as well as in the far northwest portion of the forecast area.
In coordination with ILN, PBZ, LWX and RNK, have opted to leave the high wind watch in effect as is for now. Portions of the watch ara may only end up needing a high end advisory, and advisories may be needed elsewhere in the forecast area, especially near the watch area, and northwest portions of the forecast area.
Very dry air builds in very quickly in the wake of the cold front Sunday morning, with showers quickly becoming limited to areas in and near the northern WV mountains by Sunday afternoon. These rain showers will change to snow showers late Sunday as colder low level air supports ice crystals in cloud, but with minimal if any accumulation. The snow showers and strong winds in the northern WV mountains gradually diminish Sunday night into Monday morning.
High pressure builds in with welcome dry, and tranquil, weather for Monday and Monday night.
Blended in the GFS and a bias consensus blend with central guidance to depict the quick frontal passage Sunday morning. Central guidance temperatures otherwise accepted, with only seasonably chilly air to follow the cold front, as the associated upper level low lifts quickly off to the east- northeast.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 435 PM Saturday...
A dry cold front slips through almost unnoticed early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, followed by a stronger high pressure center. This continues the dry, and still only seasonably chilly weather Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Model solutions become somewhat discombobulated from midweek on, but center around the idea of a weak cold front crossing Wednesday into Wednesday night, followed by weak systems crossing as the front lingers nearby to the south of the area, through the balance of the work week.
Central guidance temperatures accepted, near normal for late winter, beneath nearly zonal upper level flow in the wake of the upper level low exiting early in the week.