|Dew Point:||44.1°F (6.7°C)|
|Wind:||From the SE at 7.8 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||40°F (4°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.53" (898.3 mb)|
Chance Light RainHigh: 50 Low: 40
Very Light RainHigh: 41 Low: 33
Patchy Drizzle then Mostly SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 26
SunnyHigh: 39 Low: 30
Mostly SunnyHigh: 48 Low: 36
A chance of rain. Cloudy. High near 50, with temperatures falling to around 44 in the afternoon. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Rain likely before 9pm, then rain likely and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a low around 40. South wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain likely and patchy fog before 7am, then rain and patchy drizzle and patchy fog. Cloudy. High near 41, with temperatures falling to around 36 in the afternoon. West wind 12 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of rain and patchy drizzle and patchy fog before 1am, then patchy drizzle and a slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. West wind 13 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Patchy drizzle before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. West wind around 16 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.
Sunny, with a high near 39.
Mostly clear, with a low around 30.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.
... Rain continues as upper low moves into region. Cooler air moves in behind the system for the beginning of next week. High pressure mid week. Another system due late next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday...
Frontogenetically forced band of light occasionally moderate rain will continue across southeast OH and northern WV into the afternoon hours. This will move north thereafter across northern WV at least, with a bit of a lull taking hold across a good chunk of the CWA. However, rain will overspread the area again this evening, as lift associated closer to the center of the upper low pivots north from southern and eastern KY. Some elevated instability across far southern counties could also result in some convective elements to enhance rains. In addition a weak surface low will traverse the area, providing additional lift via low level convergence.
Generally .75 to near 1 inch has fallen across the area since last night. An additional half inch to inch is expected tonight, primarily across southeast OH and adjacent northern WV lowland counties. Given that most of this will occur as runoff, creeks and low lying areas will be vulnerable to flooding which could result in road closures. Even though this is somewhat of a prolonged event, given the impacts we typically see across those locations in the cool season with the forecast QPF, I elected to hoist a flood watch into Sunday morning.
The upper low moves east of the area on Sunday, taking the steadier rains with it. In its wake will be areas of drizzle and/or light rain, tapering off in the afternoon. The exception being across the mountains where lingering orographic lift and low level moisture will keep the threat of light precipitation going. Meanwhile, the column will be cooling such that a transition to light freezing rain/drizzle across the high eastern ridges of Raleigh County is possible heading into Sunday morning, spreading into the ridges in Pocahontas County during the afternoon. I will hold on any winter weather advisory for now, given the uncertainty with just how cold the air will be at the surface.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday...
Shallow, low-level moisture remains across the area at the start of the period and wanes from West to East through Sunday night. General NW flow through the column continues to bringing in cooler air leading to a cooler Monday morning. This regime keeps light rain and drizzle, freezing drizzle for some across higher elevations, through the night.
A reinforcing cold front drops down Monday afternoon into the evening, bringing renewed, albeit low, precipitation chances across higher terrain with effective upslope flow in spite of only shallow moisture availability. Latest model soundings show a hint of crystal growth, so a few flakes may mix into otherwise drizzle/freezing drizzle along highest ridgelines Monday night. Favorable upslope winds erode by Tuesday morning and high pressure builds from the Great Lakes region, gradually clearing conditions through Tuesday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 PM Saturday...
With high pressure overhead, clear, calm skies allow for a cold Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with lows in the 20's. High pressure shifts to the East with an approaching ridge, allowing southwesterly return flow to take hold, ushering in a warming and moistening trend through Thursday. High temperatures reach well into the 40's (mountains) and 50's (lowlands) Wednesday and Thursday, with some locations perhaps flirting with 60 on Thursday should cloud cover be less widespread than currently forecast.
Attention then turns to the system approaching the area at the end of the work week. Models agree on a deeply amplified trough axis traversing the CONUS, arriving East of the Mississippi by Thursday. Warm frontal rain showers associated with the system start to arrive mid-Thursday and will depend on timing of said front, possible downsloping eating into precip chances in the western lowlands, and moistening of the boundary layer. Major long-range models agree that the low will track up through this area from the SSW to NNE on Friday, occluding as it does so, with continued rain shower activity. Main uncertainty during this phase would be the presence of or lack of a dry slot modifying available moisture. Winds turn northerly and cold air filters in behind the system center Friday night, so a wintry mix is possible at least across the higher terrain as the system exits heading into the early part of the weekend.